List assumptions that truly move results: user adoption, learning curve duration, transaction volume growth, error reduction percentages, and integration stability. Assign plausible ranges to each. This exercise turns a fuzzy forecast into a map of influence, revealing where negotiation, training focus, or backup plans matter most to preserving returns.
Vary one driver at a time to see which changes reshape ROI or extend payback beyond comfort. Then explore combined effects using simple Monte Carlo ideas or scenario matrices. Even a spreadsheet with random draws provides intuition about probability, helping leaders set thresholds, guardrails, and contingency budgets before committing fully.
Summarize results with a likely band rather than a single figure. Define acceptable payback windows and minimum NPV. If the conservative case still meets thresholds, proceed confidently. If not, adjust scope, renegotiate pricing, or pilot longer. Decisions framed this way feel calmer, defend better, and keep small teams focused on resilient moves.